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25-Sep-2015 07:51

The MN-State Climatology Office offers a summary of the month o their web site.

But the second half of the month also brought drier than normal weather to many parts of the state and this has been further amplified by a dry start to October.

Agriculture will face pressure from big swings in rainfall - more whiplash, going from drought to flood - but most models predict ample moisture here.

And we'll have something in short supply across the western USA. Neighbors who fled to California or Arizona may think about moving back.

This will be the weekend to head north and check out the colors from Bemidji to Duluth; great splashes of color in the Brainerd and Alexandria Lakes area, but only 25-50% of the trees have turned in the metro area, still 1-2 weeks away from peak color. NOAA's 12KM NAM model shows the surge of warmth this weekend, peaking Sunday afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage Sunday night and Monday. The need for revitalized, reimagined, resilient infrastructure has never been greater. Long before the historic floods of the past week, crumbling roads, bridges and dams and aging drinking water systems plagued South Carolina — a poor state that didn't spend much on them in the first place and has been loath to raise taxes for upkeep.The more rapid the change in temperature the faster winds have to blow to keep the atmosphere in a state of equilibrium. Now the state faces hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars' worth of additional bills to fix or replace key pieces of its devastated infrastructure.But for most of the planet more weather volatility and warming (rising) seas will be a net negative. Soak it up, because October returns September: 6F Warmer Than Average, Statewide. Parts of the Deep South and Pacific Northwest saw September temperatures close to average, no cooler than average weather in the Lower 48.It was the warmest September on record for Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan; 3rd warmest ever recorded for the Midwest. The most pronounced warmth was observed from the Rockies and Upper Midwest into parts of New England. September was the warmest in history on a statewide basis, surpassing September of 1931.

On the other hand weather has generally been good for harvesting the corn crop which is expected to be a record across the state. The model plot shows tight alignment (meaning high confidence level) with highs in the low to mid 80s on Sunday, very close to the 1930 record of 84F in the Twin Cities. Kayser pulled up some stats on how unusual 80F highs are in October and the results are displayed above.

Good field drying conditions have been a benefit in reducing drying costs before storage Colors Peaking Up North. The model wind plot shows sustained winds close to 20 mph by midday and afternoon, easing a bit on Sunday before a frontal passage and sharp temperature drop turns on even stronger winds Monday: sustained at 20-25 with gusts to 35. Weekend Warm Spike - October Reality Check Next Week. Not as warm as 2011, but considering we could be scraping frost off our windshields a welcome reprieve for many of us. If the sun stays out all day (likely) we should at least see low 80s Sunday; a 1 in 3 chance of breaking records at MSP and St. Considering the sun is as high in the sky as it was in early March that's pretty impressive. Already Poor Infrastructure Devastated by Historic Carolina Floods. News takes a look at what the federal government will and won't cover; here's an excerpt: "...

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